The Impact of Climate Variability and Socio-Economic Factors on Cereal Yield in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This study examines how climate variability and key socio-economic factors influence cereal yield in Pakistan from 2000 to 2024. Using annual time‑series data and an empirical framework grounded in the Cobb-Douglas production function and Climate Change Theory, the analysis applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique with unit root, diagnostic, and stability tests to capture both short‑run and long‑run dynamics. Results show that short‑run agricultural factors exert a stronger influence on cereal yield than long‑run relationships. Irrigated land significantly enhances productivity, whereas fertilizer consumption, domestic credit, and agricultural CO2 emissions exhibit weak or negligible effects. The national‑level focus limits regional interpretation, and important variables such as temperature, rainfall, soil quality, and technological adoption are not included. Nonlinear interactions and structural breaks may also fall outside the ARDL framework. Overall, the findings highlight the need to strengthen land management, improve irrigation efficiency, and enhance input utilization to raise agricultural productivity. Effective credit mechanisms and resource allocation are essential for supporting sustainable cereal production. By integrating climate and socio‑economic variables, the study provides new evidence on the drivers of cereal yield in Pakistan and offers insights for designing climate‑resilient agricultural policies.